The MEM 4-Signal Burnout Early-Warning Model
Differentiated IP. No incumbent (MHFA England, Mind, ACAS, Bupa) teaches a pre-crisis pattern model. They teach crisis recognition. We teach 6-weeks-earlier recognition.
Why 4 signals (not more, not fewer)
A line manager has 10–15 minutes of attention per direct report per week. A 12-item checklist gets ignored. Four signals = one per finger of one hand, recallable mid-conversation, mappable to one weekly 1:1.
The four signals
Signal 1 — ENERGY DRIFT
What you're noticing: The person's baseline energy has dropped for 2+ consecutive weeks. Not "tired this week" — a sustained step-down.
Where it shows up:
- Camera off when it used to be on
- Replies later in the day than usual
- Shorter Slack/Teams messages
- Leaves meetings as soon as they end (no "and one more thing")
- Lunch break disappeared OR became suspiciously long
What it is NOT: A bad week. A holiday hangover. A one-off late night.
Manager action: Name it gently. "I've noticed your energy seems lower the last couple of weeks — anything I should know about?"
Signal 2 — SCOPE SHRINK
What you're noticing: The person's contribution radius has narrowed. They're still delivering their job, but no longer reaching for the +1.
Where it shows up:
- Stopped volunteering for cross-team work
- Stopped giving opinions in meetings (just nods)
- Declined a stretch piece they'd normally jump on
- "Just doing my job" appears in conversation
- No more ideas in 1:1s — only status updates
What it is NOT: Healthy boundary-setting after a clear conversation about workload.
Manager action: Test for capacity vs disengagement. "You'd normally have taken X — was that a deliberate choice or did you not have headspace?"
Signal 3 — RECOVERY GAP
What you're noticing: The person isn't recovering between sprints. Weekends, evenings, holidays no longer reset them.
Where it shows up:
- Comes back from leave already tired
- Mentions poor sleep more than once
- Sunday-night Slack messages
- Cancelled their last two breaks
- Energy on Monday is the same as energy on Friday
What it is NOT: A demanding life phase (new baby, house move, bereavement) where you'd expect short-term recovery debt with a known end.
Manager action: Protect recovery, not just output. "Your last two breaks got cancelled. I need to know what's getting in the way — and I'll help fix it."
Signal 4 — RELATIONAL FADE
What you're noticing: The person's weak ties at work are dying. Strong ties hold longest, so by the time those go you're 8+ weeks too late.
Where it shows up:
- Not in the casual channels anymore
- Stopped attending optional socials they used to enjoy
- One-word replies in group chats
- Their name no longer comes up in other people's stories
- They've stopped asking colleagues for help
What it is NOT: An introvert who's always been low-social. Look for CHANGE from their own baseline, not from a team average.
Manager action: Reconnect the safest tie first — usually you, then a peer they trust. "Let's do our next 1:1 as a walk. I want to properly catch up."
The scoring rule
- 0 signals — Normal. Keep cadence.
- 1 signal for 2+ weeks — Notice. Open a low-stakes conversation.
- 2 signals concurrently — Act. Workload review + the supportive conversation framework (see
05-conversation-framework.md). - 3+ signals OR Signal 4 alone for 4+ weeks — Escalate. Bring in HR / OH / EAP / GP signposting. This is NOT a "wait and see" zone.
What this is NOT
This is a management tool, not a clinical assessment. The model helps you spot a pattern earlier and have a better conversation. It does not diagnose depression, anxiety, burnout-as-condition, or any other clinical state. If a direct report is in crisis or expresses suicidal ideation, stop using this model and follow the crisis-signposting card (Samaritans 116 123, GP, A&E).
How to teach it (3-hour course, ~25 min on this section)
- 0–3 min — Story: "the 6-week-too-late moment" (every manager has one).
- 3–8 min — Introduce the 4 signals on screen, one slide each.
- 8–15 min — Cohort works in pairs on a real direct report (anonymous), maps which signals are present.
- 15–22 min — Plenary: pick 3 voluntary shares. Facilitator reflects pattern recognition.
- 22–25 min — The scoring rule + the escalation line. Pocket-card handed out here.
Slides required
- S1 — Title: "The 4-Signal Model"
- S2 — Why 4 (not 12)
- S3 — Signal 1: Energy Drift
- S4 — Signal 2: Scope Shrink
- S5 — Signal 3: Recovery Gap
- S6 — Signal 4: Relational Fade
- S7 — The scoring rule
- S8 — What this is NOT (clinical-claim boundary)